### Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic development in China

#### Abstract

In this work, mathematical modelling of the dynamics of coronavirus COVID-19 is performed for China. The outbreak of coronavirus in China can be considered as public health emergency of international concern. The number of infected is increasing daily. Cases of COVID-19 virus have been detected in nearly 200 countries. Many sporting events, festivals, exhibitions and tournaments have been canceled or postponed. The pandemic has affected education systems around the world, leading to the massive closure of schools and universities. Viral incubation period of this virus is quite long, it ranges from 1 to 14 days. The danger of a new disease also lies in the fact that it is easily confused with a common cold or flu. Therefore, the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 is a serious threat for international health and economics. A mathematical description of the dynamics of virus allows to study the nature of the disease thoughtfully, to analyze statistical and model data, to make hypotheses concerning the future dynamics of coronavirus and to evaluate the effectiveness of the measures undertaken. For mathematical modelling of coronavirus COVID-19, the authors use a modified system of differential equations constructed according to the SIR compartmental model. The optimal values of the model parameters, that describe the statistical data precisely, were found. The analysis of the current situation of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China was made, which led to the efficiency mark of the existing measures to struggle against the virus.

PDF

#### References

Makarov V.V., Khromov A.V., Guschin V.A., Tkachuk A.P. Emergence of new infections in the 21st century and identification of pathogens using next generation sequencing. Bulletin of Russian State Medical University. 2017; (1): 5-23. DOI: 10.24075/brsmu.2017-01-01 (In Russian)

Notification to the National Health and Health Commission on the preliminary naming of a new coronavirus pneumonia [Online]. Available: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yzygj/s7653p/202002/18c1bb43965a4492907957875de02ae7.shtml

Bolles, M., Donaldson, E., Baric, R. SARS-CoV and emergent coronaviruses: viral determinants of interspecies transmission. Current opinion in virology. 2011; 1(6): 624-634. DOI: 10.1016/j.coviro.2011.10.012

Shelkanov M. U., Kolobuhina L. V., Lyvov D. K. Men’s coronaviruses (Nidovirales, Coronaviridae): increased epidemic hazard. Lechashiy vrach. 2013; (10): 49-54. (In Russian)

Al-Hazmi A. Challenges presented by MERS corona virus and SARS corona virus to global health. Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences. 2016; 23(4): 507-511. DOI: 10.1016/j.sjbs.2016.02.019

Hui D. S., Azhar E. EI, Madani T. A., Ntoumi, F., Kock R.; Dar O., Ippolito G., Mchugh T, D., Memish Z. A. The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health — The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases: journal. 2020, 91: 264-266. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.009

Wang D., Hu B., Hu C., et al. Clinical characteristics of 138 hospitalized patients with 2019 novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA. Published online February 07, 2020. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.1585

Prevention, Treatment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [Online]. Available: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html

Heymann D. L., Shindo N. COVID-19: what is next for public health? The Lancet. 2020. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30374-3

Read J. M., Bridgen J. RE, Cummings D. AT, Ho A., Jewell C. P. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. 2020. DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549

Kucharski A., Russell T., Diamond C., Liu Y., Edmunds J., Funk S., Eggo R., CMMID nCoV working group. Analysis and projections of transmission dynamics of nCoV in Wuhan [Online]. Available: https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/

Roosa K., Lee Y., Luo R., Kirpich A., R. Rothenberg, Hyman J.M., Yan P., Chowell G. Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020. Infectious Disease Modelling. 2020; 5:256-263. DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.002

Kermack W. O., McKendrick A. G. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, Section A. Mathematics. 1927; 115:700–721. DOI: 10.1098/rspa.1927.0118

Martcheva M. An Introduction to Mathematical Epidemiology. Springer. 2015; 453. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4899-7612-3

Khaleque A. and Sen P. An empirical analysis of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Scientific reports. 2017; 7: 42594. DOI: 10.1038/srep42594

Urakova K. A., Khrapov P. V., Mathematical modelling of Ebola hemorrhagic fever epidemiological development in West Africa. Almanakh sovremennoi nauki I obrazovaniya. 2017; 4-5 (118):97-99. Available at: https://elibrary.ru

/item.asp?id=29147514 (accessed 10.01.2019). (In Russian)

Huang X. C., Villasana M. An extension of the Kermack– McKendrick model for AIDS epidemic. Journal of the Franklin Institute. 2005; 342.4: 341-351. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfranklin.2004.11.008

Khrapov N. P., Khrapov P. V., Shumilina A. O. Mathematical Model and forecast of AIDS epidemiological development. Almanakh sovremennoi nauki I obrazovaniya, Gramota. 2008; 12(9):218-221. Available at: http://scjournal.ru/articles/issn_1993- 5552_2008_12_70.pdf. (In Russian)

Khrapov P. V., Loginova A. A. Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of AIDS epidemics development in the world. International Journal of Open Information Technologies. 2019; 7(6): 13-16. Available at: http://injoit.org/index.php/j1/article/view/755/720.

Arino J. Mathematical epidemiology in a dara-rich world. Infectious Disease Modelling. 2020; 5: 161-188. DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.008

Li X., Zeng X., Liu B., Yu Y. COVID-19 infection presenting with CT Halo Sign. Radiology: Cardiothoracic imaging. 2020; 2(1). DOI: 10.1148/ryct.2020200026

Ng M. Y., Lee E. Y., Yang J., Yang F., Li X., Wang H., …, Hui C. K. M. Imaging profile of the COVID-19 infection: radiologic findings and literature review. Cardiothoracic imaging. 2020; 2(1). DOI: 10.1148/ryct.2020200034

Velavan T. P., Meyer C. G. The COVID-19 epidemic. Tropical medicine & international health: TM&IH. 2020. DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13383

Du Z., Wang L., Cauchemez S., Xu X., Wang X., Cowling B. J., Meyers L. A. Risk for transportation of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from Wuhan to cities in China. Medrxiv. 2020. DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.28.20019299

Liu Q., Li D., Liu Z., Gao Z., Zhu J., Yang J., Wang Q. Assessing the tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) outbreak in China. Medrxiv. 2020. DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021444.

### Refbacks

• There are currently no refbacks.

Abava  Absolutech Fruct 2020

ISSN: 2307-8162