Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the Coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic development in China

Pavel Khrapov, Anastasia Loginova


In this work, mathematical modelling of the dynamics of coronavirus COVID-19 is performed for China. The outbreak of coronavirus in China can be considered as public health emergency of international concern. The number of infected is increasing daily. Cases of COVID-19 virus have been detected in nearly 200 countries. Many sporting events, festivals, exhibitions and tournaments have been canceled or postponed. The pandemic has affected education systems around the world, leading to the massive closure of schools and universities. Viral incubation period of this virus is quite long, it ranges from 1 to 14 days. The danger of a new disease also lies in the fact that it is easily confused with a common cold or flu. Therefore, the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 is a serious threat for international health and economics. A mathematical description of the dynamics of virus allows to study the nature of the disease thoughtfully, to analyze statistical and model data, to make hypotheses concerning the future dynamics of coronavirus and to evaluate the effectiveness of the measures undertaken. For mathematical modelling of coronavirus COVID-19, the authors use a modified system of differential equations constructed according to the SIR compartmental model. The optimal values of the model parameters, that describe the statistical data precisely, were found. The analysis of the current situation of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China was made, which led to the efficiency mark of the existing measures to struggle against the virus.

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