Adaptation of Leontief's model for forecasting the consequences of shock impacts on the small and medium business sector of the region

Konstantin Maracha, Pavel Kolykhalov, Viacheslav Maracha

Abstract


In modern conditions, when regions regularly face economic, epidemiological, geopolitical and climatic shocks, increasing the adaptability of regional socio-economic systems is of key importance. This is especially true for the SME sector, which, despite its vulnerability, plays a key role in the sustainable development of regions. Increasing the resilience of regions requires the use of modern digital solutions that can not only promptly assess risks, but also predict the consequences of crises, and support the adoption of informed management decisions. The purpose of this paper is to adapt the Leontief’s model to forecast the consequences of shock impacts on regional SMEs. Its practical significance is expressed in the possibility of using the obtained new forecast model as a decision support system for authorities when planning and implementing policies and specific measures to support the SME sector under conditions of uncertainty. The authors substantiate the choice of the Leontief’s model and the original approach, which provides for the use of large business and SME sectors as “industries”. Based on real data on the dynamics of socio-economic indicators of Lipetsk region, quantitative values of the elements of Leontief’s matrices of inter-industry balance and short-term damage from the shocks of 2019 and 2020 were calculated, and an interpretation of the obtained data was proposed.

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References


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