Estimation of the inter-ethnic harmony dynamics with Markov and semi-Markov models complex

Alexander Skatkov, Dmitry Voronin, Olga Yarmak, Pavel Kuznetsov, Vladislav Evstigneev


The Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol are multinational regions and, thus, the problem of inter-ethnic harmony in them was relevant at various periods of history. It remains extremely important at the moment, taking into account the new information, digital, extremist and terrorist challenges of the modern world. At the same time, the rapid development of modern information and communication technologies in this sense creates additional external challenges and threats, which need formation of effective means for assessing and countering degradation effects on the Internet audience of our society, thereby preventing the spread of extremist sentiments and terrorist attitudes.

To assess the effectiveness of control actions aimed at interethnic consolidation of society, it is not enough to use only Markov models, since they do not have "memory" and do not estimate the transition times and stay times of the actors of the social system under consideration in steady states. The complex use of Markov and semi-Markov models will allow at a higher level of adequacy to describe the adaptation processes of key actors, the behavior of which is determined by the “history” of their functioning, current control signals and other a priori information. This makes it possible to assess the degree of degassing impact on the Internet audience of multinational regions, analyze risk groups in the corresponding Internet segment and identify trends in its development.

The proposed complex of models is aimed at identifying the content and dynamic characteristics of social and media information flows, indicating problems in achieving interethnic harmony in the Republic of Crimea and  Sevastopol, as well as discourses circulating in social media that form user attitudes regarding interethnic harmony on the peninsula.

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