Modeling the dynamics of changes in the number of comments of mass media users based on the Fokker-Planck equation and parameters of networks of their connections

J.P. Perova, V.N. Kalinin, S.A. Lesko


In the course of the study, the dynamics of the moods of Internet media users were carried out using the Fokker-Planck equation and using the parameters of comment network graphs. The article introduces a general graph state vector, which includes a high intermediation coefficient, an average value of the clustering coefficient, and the proportion of users in various states. The time dependence of the cosine of the angle between the base and current state vector graphs forms a time series, the values of the levels, which can be interpreted as “wandering points” over a selection of parameters that characterize the state of the network. The current state of the comment graph can be determined using network and text analysis tools. The solution of the Fokker-Planck equation makes it possible to obtain an analytical dependence for the probability density of detecting the magnitude of the state of the network at a given value on the interval of possible values. This approach can be used to create an algorithm for predicting the time to reach a given state of the user comments network graph with a given level of probability. Analysis of the model confirms its adequacy and consistency.

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